When It Rains, It Pours

In a near repeat of a similar event two years ago, heavy thunderstorms pounded the Toledo area again and again last night and this morning. The weather station recorded a storm total of 4.10" of rain which is less rain over a longer period than the 2006 storm, but for some reason the basement flooding situation here has been far worse. I'm not sure if it's because of already saturated ground or what, but I've been fighting a torrent of water flowing into my sump pit for over 12 hours now. It's coming in faster than I've ever seen, and it's coming in with such force that it's impacting the pump itself, not allowing it to shut off. I have wedged some pieces of 2x4 in the pit to divert the flow away from the pump, allowing it to shut off for around 3 seconds per cycle. Not ideal by any stretch but better than the pump continuously running.

I haven't been out yet today but I imagine others in my addition and elsewhere are suffering more than I am. I have a top-of-the-line pump and if it can't keep up, I'd imagine my neighbors with the default pump are flooding. I do have to go out this afternoon, and it's definitely Jeep weather. I'm not sure of the road flooding situation, but I will try to get as much info as I can before I leave.

New Weather Website

My weather website that is being run in conjunction with Lucas County Choppers, LCC Weather Net, is live in a pre-launch form at wx.lcchoppers.com. This is certainly not the final version of this site; I hope to add a lot more functionality to it as I become more capable in writing PHP scripts and adapting them to the site. However, this draft version is functional, which is whats important.

I had some serious trouble with Weather Display, the shareware weather software I was testing. I had a power outage during a heavy rainfall when I was at work, and I wasn't able to get the data upload restored until around 5 hours later. When I restarted the program, instead of downloading the actual rainfall data it averaged the rainfall rates from when the power went out down to zero over the five hour span, giving me a total of around 1" more than actual. It screwed up both my Weather Display and Weather Underground data, which didn't make me very happy. So I've abandoned Weather Display (which would have cost $73 to register) and am now planning on using Virtual Weather Station, which will cost a tiny bit more to register but is more stable.

Updates on Monday's Weather

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has completed a few important surveys of the severe weather event that struck the area Monday. First they determined that there was no tornado in Van Wert County...all damage there was the result of straight line winds. Also the extreme wind gusts of 99 mph in Van Wert County and 117 mph in Lyons were erroneous because the measurements were in kph and not mph, meaning the true wind gusts were 62 mph and 73 mph, respectively. There was a ham radio report Monday night of a possible tornado in Springfield Township, but it appears that was never verified.

There are a few updates to this site as well. On the right side of the page below the current weather conditions and the severe weather outlooks are audio links to the local NOAA Weather Radio broadcasts. These are live streaming mp3 files (hosted at www.wunderground.com) that will play in Windows Media Player, Winamp, or whatever multimedia player you use.

Also, I have preliminarily established that my proposed weather website will be an offshoot of the Lucas County Choppers site and will be located at wx.lcchoppers.com. There are a few reasons for this...one, weather is a crucial consideration for motorcycling, so it makes sense, and two, it gives me a convenient home to get my feet wet and get a small site established. I still need to decide on my weather station software, and then I plan on reformatting my desktop computer and turning it into a semi-dedicated weather server...so it will still be some time before things are up and running.

May 2008 Climatological Summary

     MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY for MAY. 2008

NAME: Brookestone Village   CITY: Sylvania   STATE: Ohio 
ELEV:   686 ft  LAT:  41° 43' 16" N  LONG:  83° 46' 29" W

           TEMPERATURE (°F), RAIN  (in)

                                      HEAT  COOL        
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG                  
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  
-------------------------------------------------------
 1  56.1  68.8   2:15p  45.3  12:15a   9.2   0.4  0.00   
 2  63.1  69.8   3:00p  54.3  12:30a   2.9   1.0  0.20   
 3  59.9  69.5   4:00p  47.7  12:00m   5.5   0.4  0.06  
 4  53.1  65.3   6:00p  39.5   6:30a  11.5   0.0  0.00   
 5  59.6  74.1   4:45p  44.5   5:30a   7.8   2.4  0.00  
 6  62.6  79.0   5:15p  47.0   5:00a   6.0   3.7  0.11  
 7  62.8  71.3   1:30p  58.9   1:00a   2.9   0.7  0.13   
 8  51.1  59.3  12:15a  45.8   8:30a  13.9   0.0  0.00   
 9  54.4  64.4   3:45p  47.4   5:45a  10.6   0.0  0.00   
10  56.3  67.6   4:45p  43.1   7:00a   8.8   0.2  0.00   
11  53.6  56.8   5:45p  50.1  10:30a  11.4   0.0  0.73   
12  51.9  58.2   5:15p  47.1   8:15a  13.1   0.0  0.13   
13  56.5  68.9   4:30p  41.1   6:30a   9.1   0.6  0.01   
14  57.9  60.8   7:15p  54.4   8:00a   7.1   0.0  0.13   
15  52.6  57.9   3:45p  44.0   6:30a  12.4   0.0  0.00   
16  57.8  69.9   5:00p  47.1   6:15a   8.0   0.8  0.00   
17  61.5  72.4   3:30p  51.5  10:30p   4.9   1.4  0.00   
18  51.9  59.0   3:45p  43.1  11:45p  13.1   0.0  0.34   
19  51.2  61.8   5:00p  38.6   6:15a  13.8   0.0  0.00   
20  55.2  64.6   5:45p  47.7   6:45a   9.8   0.0  0.00  
21  52.1  61.4   5:00p  44.1   6:15a  12.9   0.0  0.00  
22  52.7  63.4   5:45p  43.7   6:00a  12.3   0.0  0.01   
23  55.6  66.7   3:30p  43.8   6:00a   9.4   0.1  0.00   
24  57.4  71.5   5:30p  40.9   6:30a   8.9   1.4  0.00  
25  61.0  77.3   5:00p  40.2   6:00a   7.5   3.5  0.00   
26  73.2  85.3   3:45p  60.6   5:45a   0.5   8.7  0.11  
27  58.8  69.9  12:15a  46.4  12:00m   6.7   0.5  0.00  
28  51.5  64.5   5:15p  35.8   6:15a  13.5   0.0  0.00   
29  59.3  75.8   3:45p  37.5   4:45a   8.6   2.9  0.00   
30  71.7  83.3   2:30p  60.1   6:45a   1.1   7.7  0.08  
31  71.2  80.4   2:15p  62.6  11:15p   0.2   6.4  0.03  
------------------------------------------------------
    57.9  85.3    26    35.8    28   263.4  42.8  2.07  

Max >=  90.0:  0
Max <=  32.0:  0
Min <=  32.0:  0
Min <=   0.0:  0
Max Rain: 0.73 ON 05/11/08
Days of Rain: 11 (>.01 in) 8 (>.1 in) 0 (>1 in)
Heat Base:  65.0  Cool Base:  65.0  Method: Integration
The mean temperature for the month 
was 1.70 degrees below normal
The recorded rainfall for the month 
was 1.07 inches below normal

A Few Days of Wild Weather

This past week has seen three distinct instances of severe weather throughout Northwest Ohio. The first event was Friday night when a fast-moving (75 mph!) line of storms blasted through around 9:00 pm. I happened to be working in the airport control tower at the time and witnessed the highest wind gust of my career so far (51 kts, close to 60 mph) which caused widespread blowing dust and debris, transformer explosions in every direction, and power outages all around the airport. The windows and floor of the tower were moving. Interestingly there was almost no rain with this line as it was in a rapid dissipation stage. My weather station at home recorded a gust of 48 mph from this storm, but very little rainfall (.08").

The second event was Sunday afternoon, when my home caught the southern end of a line of storms that was mainly in Michigan. There was a lot of lightning and around .25" of rain, but not much wind.

The big one was Monday evening. I fared pretty well here at my house, with a 45 mph maximum wind gust and no damage, but damage was widespread throughout Northwest Ohio. In Lyons (around 15 miles west of me) a Davis weather station like the one I own recorded a 117 mph wind gust. There are trees down all over the region. High winds derailed a freight train east of Toledo. There was a possible tornado touchdown in tornado-magnet Van Wert County, along with much damage near Fremont, OH. Between that storm and another series of storms early Tuesday morning I received 1.5" of rain.

There will be a break in the action Wednesday and Thursday with another chance of storms Friday.

Severe Wx Expected Here Tomorrow

The Thursday outbreak did not pan out, barely meeting slight risk criteria. There are strong storms from Iowa to Tennessee, and there have been a few tornado reports, but it's nothing like was feared earlier this week.

Worse weather could actually come to our area tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the Toledo area in what's called a hatched area, meaning there's a chance here for significant severe weather including possible strong tornadoes. I'm not sure yet of the timing of this event, but the wind profiles will definitely support severe weather (rotation especially), and if proper instability presents itself, things will go. Hopefully it bypasses our immediate area.

Severe Outbreak Update

It's been a pretty nasty night in Texas and Oklahoma, as was expected. Tomorrow's potential might be limited by the leftover convection from tonight's storms...the kinematic ingredients that made meteorologists recall legendary outbreaks are still there, but lack of instability and timing are serious limiting factors that might save many people from a very bad day. The outlook is nowhere near as bullish as it was yesterday or Monday...in fact it's quite possible SPC will choose not to issue a high risk.

The fact that the system is coming in slower than progged means we might see some severe weather locally on Friday. If it comes it will likely be an intense squall line with potential imbedded supercells. Friday's picture will become clearer after tomorrow plays itself out.

Major Severe Wx Event Expected

Not necessarily for this area, although Friday might require some watching. Our severe potential Friday depends on the time of arrival, cloud cover, and other factors. The predicted high that day is 71 as of now, so atmospheric heating certainly won't be a hinderance.

Tomorrow will see a threat confined to Texas and Oklahoma, but the big show is expected Thursday. More than one meteorologist posting on online weather forums has stated that the synoptic setup of this system compares quite favorably to that of April 3-4, 1974. Of course the mere mention of that date will make a weather geek's eyes become the size of saucers. Now even NWS Offices are chiming in similarly. The Norman, OK office says:

DEVELOPING NEGATIVE-TILT TROF OUT W... WITH UPSTREAM 160-KT JET MAX DIGGING INTO ITS BACK SIDE... HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WED-THU AS IT SWINGS FROM TX TOWARD THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. DEPTH AND QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CRUCIAL... ESPECIALLY AS FAR N AND NW AS OUR CWA WHERE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE IN TERMS OF LL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY BECOMES ADEQUATE... THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP SUGGESTS THAT THIS ONE COULD RIVAL SOME OF THE MORE NOTORIOUS APRIL OUTBREAKS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DECADES.

That last sentence is an obvious reference to the April outbreaks of 1965, 1974, 1979, and 1991. To get a mention like that out of a NWS office is a sign of an impending epic.

The location of the Thursday outbreak is expected to be centered in Missouri and Arkansas, extending into Western Kentucky and Tennessee, as well as Southern Illinois. Look for SPC to place this area in high risk more than 24 hours prior to the event. I believe the most severe stuff should stay south of our local area on Friday, but we do have some potential, and might be placed in moderate risk at some point Friday.

Finally, Good Weather!!

It's about time...what an awful winter this has been. Today we're looking at temperatures in the 40s, which I consider almost hot given the below-normal temperatures we've seen all winter. The forecast is really good too, with temperatures near normal in the mid to upper-40s for the next 7 days.

This normalcy and stability is a result of the jet stream being oriented in almost a straight line west to east (zonal flow). We'll see a few days of rainy (that's right...liquid precipitation!) weather in the next week as small storms flow along the jet.

There is very warm air bottled up south of the jet in the Southwest and Dixie. In the next few weeks if the jet stream becomes more wavy (meridional flow), we should see a few days in the 60s or perhaps near 70...with a threat of thunderstorms the day after. In other words, springlike weather!

Will It Ever End???

I need to refer to this post in September and October (when I'm usually ready for it to cool down) to remind myself how much I hate Winter!

From NWS Cleveland:

LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON...
FREMONT...SANDUSKY
303 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO MONDAY EVENING. IT MAY
START AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN BUT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A GLAZE OF ICE ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING AS WELL.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU
ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR
THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

***

For some reason this has been the most irritatingly long and annoying Winter in a long time for me. I've never been this ready for warmer weather.

Urban Heat Island

It's a clear, cold night tonight in the Toledo area, and area temperatures range widely depending on whether the readings are taken in the city or the country. Temps in the heart of Toledo range from 17-19F while it is a chilly 9F out here in the township. This is a very common disparity known as the urban heat island effect.

Now it is my personal belief that the urban heat island effect is responsible for some...*some*...of the recent warming trend known as "global warming". Over the years in many locales, the official place of weather record (usually the city's main airport) has grown increasingly urban, as the cities have grown outward around the airports that were once on the far outskirts. This will undoubtedly have at least a small effect on official average temperatures over time.

Jeep vs. EF-4+ Tornado

Advantage, tornado. :-0



This was from the only major Arkansas tornado from last Tuesday's horrific outbreak.

More Just Unreal Weather

This unheard of January severe weather outbreak continues to unfold. Tornado watches line the Central US from Oklahoma to Michigan. There is a line of discrete tornado-producing supercells moving over the same areas again and again in Southwest Missouri. Closer to home, a fast-moving squall line has taken shape, and will move through Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio this evening with possible straight-line winds up to 75 mph.

Incredible Weather

Who would believe 67° on January 7? If global warming means temperatures in the dead of winter this warm, I say BRING IT!!

In all seriousness though, this is highly unusual weather,and with temperatures like these and a strong storm system in the plains, severe weather is a possibility. In fact, Chicago is currently under a tornado watch. Tomorrow severe weather is possible from the Toledo area south to Alabama.

Toledo set a record high for the date and for the month today.

Big Winter Storm

We're just getting started here in Toledo with this weekend's major winter storm. As I type we are already receiving light snow with a small dusting already in place. We're under a Winter Storm Warning until tomorrow evening.

Forecasts have had us in the 8-16" range (storm total), but I'm starting to see things in the "nowcast" that might mean less snowfall for us. Apparently some of the models are tracking the low farther west, a little closer to Toledo, which means the heavy snow band would also move west. I would be happy to see less snow than advertised, although in the snow pool at work I went big (as a weather fan I had to) with 11.8".

Another problem will be the winds. The low is expected to reach a pressure similar to that in a Category 1 hurricane (the winds won't be that high, though), and if it tracks where it's expected to, we'll probably get 30-40 mph winds tomorrow. The low track might also allow me to see a sub 29.00" pressure, which is one of my weather geek goals in life...sad, I know.

Windy

There are few things I like doing less than working local control when the winds are stupid and watching airplanes try to land. Today was one of those days, with winds sustained at 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. Thankfully the winds were pretty much down the runway heading give or take 20 degrees, so they didn't have an awful crosswind to deal with along with the turbulence and windshear, but it was bad enough. The discomfort in the pilots' voices was very apparent. It was a nice day to be on the ground.

The maximum gust I had on my home weather station was 33 mph (29 knots), but I'm convinced the anemometer reads low. I know Micah, I need to get my data back online. Maybe later this evening.

WX Data Temporarily Down

My online weather station data will be down until this weekend. For up-to-date data, use the online weather station that's located about 1/2 mile south of my location (link). Their barometric pressure reading is usually a few points off, but otherwise it's accurate.

Expect another weather station outage a few days in length in another week or two.

Big Weather Hits The Area

Major storms impacted Northwest Ohio this evening, as a line of severe thunderstorms moved through around 6:30 pm. Lucas County was placed under a tornado warning because of eastbound radar-indicated rotation near Berkey. I live about 3 or 4 miles due east of Berkey...so this one got my attention. The sky was about as ugly as I've ever seen, but it didn't look tornadic at all. That having been said, I hit the deck pretty much as soon as the warning came across.

There were lots of reports of damage around the area -- downed trees, power outages and such -- but I came through with no problems. The power went out for just a short time. My maximum recorded wind gust here was 32 mph...and since there were reports of 60-80 mph winds not far from here I feel very fortunate.

The online weather data went down when the power went out...it will be back up shortly.

"Climate Science"

Looking at my climatic data from last month, the temps look pretty normal for July don't they? Only 4 days over 90 degrees...not excessively hot at all.

Most of you who know me well know my opinions on global climate change. I'm not going to go on-and-on about it on this site. What I want to do, though, is share with you a very interesting blog I've found that is documenting the location of official temperature reporting sites.

To start off, let me first explain a few things. One, location of thermometers is critical for recording accurate data. When I installed my Davis weather station, the instructions were very specific on where and where not to place the sensors. Two, it is extraordinarily easy to build a warm bias into temperature recordings by misplacing sensors; it is nearly impossible to build in a cool bias. Things that build in a warm bias include placing sensors too close to asphalt, buildings, concrete, air conditioning units, direct sunlight, or things that reflect direct sunlight.

That all having been said, look at where our nation's official weather sensors, those used to feed data into the climate change models, are located: http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/weather_stations/

July 2007 Climatological Summary

      MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY for JUL. 2007

NAME: Brookestone Village   CITY: Sylvania   STATE: Ohio 
ELEV:   686 ft  LAT:  41° 43' 16" N  LONG:  83° 46' 29" W

                   TEMPERATURE (°F), RAIN  (in)

                                      HEAT  COOL      
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  
-------------------------------------------------------
 1  66.0  75.0   2:45p  55.0   6:30a   2.2   3.2  0.00  
 2  62.9  74.1   4:30p  48.1   6:15a   5.0   2.8  0.00   
 3  70.8  82.5   7:00p  57.4   6:45a   1.8   7.7  0.00   
 4  72.9  84.2   6:30p  64.6   5:45a   0.0   7.9  0.01   
 5  72.3  84.6   3:15p  60.1   6:00a   0.9   8.2  0.11   
 6  72.1  85.9   5:15p  57.0   6:00a   1.6   8.7  0.00   
 7  74.0  88.1   4:15p  57.2   6:00a   1.5  10.5  0.00   
 8  80.3  94.8   4:00p  63.2   3:30a   0.1  15.4  0.00   
 9  81.9  92.9   2:45p  69.9   6:30a   0.0  17.0  0.00   
10  80.2  92.1   3:00p  70.8   3:30a   0.0  15.2  0.00   
11  73.6  79.6   4:15p  59.0  11:30p   0.3   8.9  0.00   
12  68.7  81.6   3:45p  55.0   1:45a   2.7   6.4  0.00   
13  64.8  78.1   6:00p  49.1   6:45a   4.4   4.2  0.00   
14  68.3  84.3   4:30p  51.8   5:30a   3.7   7.0  0.02   
15  68.7  82.3   6:00p  54.9   7:00a   2.0   5.7  0.00   
16  68.8  84.0   3:30p  51.9   7:00a   3.4   7.2  0.00   
17  69.3  74.6   7:00p  65.0   6:30a   0.0   4.3  0.13   
18  74.7  87.0   5:45p  62.5   2:45a   0.3  10.0  0.25   
19  71.3  80.0   3:15p  62.3  12:00m   0.1   6.4  0.49   
20  65.2  76.2   4:45p  53.7   6:45a   3.5   3.7  0.00   
21  64.9  77.7   6:15p  49.2   7:00a   4.3   4.2  0.00   
22  66.6  80.4   4:30p  49.9   6:00a   4.1   5.7  0.00   
23  68.7  81.6   2:00p  52.5   5:00a   3.0   6.7  0.00   
24  69.8  81.7   4:30p  61.9   4:30a   0.7   5.5  0.00   
25  65.8  75.8  11:30a  59.1   5:30a   1.3   2.2  0.16   
26  67.5  75.9   3:15p  56.9   6:45a   2.0   4.6  0.11   
27  73.9  87.5   5:30p  65.3   3:45a   0.0   8.9  1.56   
28  74.2  82.8   5:45p  65.9   7:00a   0.0   9.2  0.03   
29  72.4  84.7   4:15p  59.9   5:45a   0.9   8.3  0.00   
30  74.1  86.6   4:45p  60.9   5:30a   0.7   9.7  0.00   
31  76.8  92.2   5:30p  60.8   6:45a   0.7  12.6  0.00   
--------------------------------------------------------
    71.0  94.8     8    48.1     2    51.2 238.0  2.87   

Max >=  90.0:  4
Max <=  32.0:  0
Min <=  32.0:  0
Min <=   0.0:  0
Max Rain: 1.56 ON 07/27/07
Days of Rain: 9 (>.01 in) 7 (>.1 in) 1 (>1 in)