Major Severe Wx Event Expected

Not necessarily for this area, although Friday might require some watching. Our severe potential Friday depends on the time of arrival, cloud cover, and other factors. The predicted high that day is 71 as of now, so atmospheric heating certainly won't be a hinderance.

Tomorrow will see a threat confined to Texas and Oklahoma, but the big show is expected Thursday. More than one meteorologist posting on online weather forums has stated that the synoptic setup of this system compares quite favorably to that of April 3-4, 1974. Of course the mere mention of that date will make a weather geek's eyes become the size of saucers. Now even NWS Offices are chiming in similarly. The Norman, OK office says:

DEVELOPING NEGATIVE-TILT TROF OUT W... WITH UPSTREAM 160-KT JET MAX DIGGING INTO ITS BACK SIDE... HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WED-THU AS IT SWINGS FROM TX TOWARD THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. DEPTH AND QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CRUCIAL... ESPECIALLY AS FAR N AND NW AS OUR CWA WHERE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE IN TERMS OF LL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY BECOMES ADEQUATE... THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP SUGGESTS THAT THIS ONE COULD RIVAL SOME OF THE MORE NOTORIOUS APRIL OUTBREAKS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DECADES.

That last sentence is an obvious reference to the April outbreaks of 1965, 1974, 1979, and 1991. To get a mention like that out of a NWS office is a sign of an impending epic.

The location of the Thursday outbreak is expected to be centered in Missouri and Arkansas, extending into Western Kentucky and Tennessee, as well as Southern Illinois. Look for SPC to place this area in high risk more than 24 hours prior to the event. I believe the most severe stuff should stay south of our local area on Friday, but we do have some potential, and might be placed in moderate risk at some point Friday.