2006 Hurricane Season Predicited To Be Active

The scientists at Colorado State University who produce Atlantic hurricane season forecasts have released their outlook for the 2006 season. Not surprisingly, given the fact that we are nearing the peak of the current hurricane cycle (a natural back-and-forth trend identified by tropical meteorologists over the past few decades, with a period of 20-30 years), the prediction is for another above average year. 2006 isn't forecast to be as bad as 2005 (nobody would forecast that), which saw all records for storm frequency and intensity broken. They call for an enhanced risk of landfalling major hurricanes in the US in 2006, although again they don't predict a repeat of last year.

It's also no shock that the CSU mets go out of their way to distance this forecast from the current hysteria surrounding global climate change ("global warming"). It must be noted that the current uptick in hurricane activity was predicted long ago, back when global warming was a glimmer in the eye of a climatologist desperate for Federal grant money. It's not atypical for meteorologists, who have identified and proven the existence of many weather cycles, to be dubious of the "runaway-train" theories surrounding global climate change. It is unknown why the natural hurricane cycle happens (theories range from variable ocean salinity to sunspots), but it not believed that minor (<1*C) changes in global surface temperature are a factor.

The full text of the CSU forecast is here.